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Part II, Page 14
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Part II: China's Rise and Its Implications for U.S.-China Relations

14. Assessing International Influence

Future World Superpower
US Survey
(BOTH SURVEYS) Which nation or political region do you think will be the world's leading superpower twenty years from now?
U.S.
China
E.U.
Russia
India
Other
Not Sure
China Survey
(BOTH SURVEYS) Which nation or political region do you think will be the world's leading superpower twenty years from now?
U.S.
China
E.U.
Russia
India
Other
Not Sure

Narrative Analysis

United States:
  • A majority of Congressional staffers (73%), business leaders (69%), opinion leaders (62%) believe the United States will be the leading global superpower in twenty years. Nearly half of the general public (49%) has the same opinion. China ranks second among all four samples, but ranks highest among the general public (23%).
  • Younger Americans (18–29-year-olds) rate the U.S. (36%) and China (17%) lower than the other age brackets and give greater weight to the E.U. (26%) and Russia (10%).
China:
  • A majority of the general public (55%) and business leaders (53%) believe China will be the leading global superpower in twenty years, and 31% of opinion leaders agree. The percentage of opinion leaders selecting the U.S. (38%) is close to that of business leaders (36%), notably higher than the general public (20%).
  • Younger Chinese (18–29-year-olds) give greater weight to the E.U. (10%) than other age groups.